The most important factor of the current silly season is the comeback of Honda, not because McLaren might suddenly become a force to be reckoned, but because the Japanese have a specific way of requesting certain drivers, unlike the European engine partners.
Honda’s involvement in F1 had been intermittent – they came as a team in the 60s, won races with Ginther and Surtees, then left after Jo Schlesser’s death. In 1999, there was an attempt to come back, with Jos Verstappen testing a Harvey Postlethwaite design, but the engineer died and the project was postponed. Honda bought BAR at the end of 2005, leaving after three seasons in a wave of Japanese pragmatism when the financial crisis sparkled, with Toyota, Suzuki, Mitsubishi and Subaru also leaving global competitions.
Honda teams got no titles, but as an engine manufacturer, the Japanese firm got their fair share of success with Williams and Mclaren, winning several championships. The particular thing was a certain preference for some drivers, such as Nelson Piquet, who left Williams with the Honda engines in a bag, taking them to Lotus. Later on, the Japanese found another samurai, close to their mentality, and duly embraced him at all costs: Ayrton Senna.
On the Honda radar, there were always two priorities: having a top driver (preferably a world champion) and giving a chance to the local drivers. As a consequence, the second seat of the Lotus alongside Senna or Piquet was reserved for Satoru Nakajima, even though it was so easy to find someone better than him. The same thing occured in 2006, when Honda seemed to realise that they needed two consistent drivers to take the fight in the constructors battle (Button and Barrichello). Instead of just firing Takuma Sato, they founded a sattelite team, where Sato got a drive alongisde famous flops like Yuji Ide or Sakon Yamamoto. Toyota operated in the same spirit, trading engines for a seat in the Williams, forcing Frank to accept the second generation of Nakajimas, thus proving that patriotism has a distinct and powerful flavour in the land of the rising sun.
Following the introduction of the 1.6 turbo engines, Honda announced their interest in the new F1, reviving the old McLaren partnership. At that time, Jenson Button saw it as a great oppportunity to come back to winning ways, as Mercedes focused on their own structure despite many years of success with the Woking team. Japan has been a second home for Jenson, who would easily win a quiz on far-east culture against the other F1 drivers. Unfortunately, the Honda managers seem to overlook the Briton, looking for a bigger name, for someone who’s more of a fighter. Alonso or Vettel are targeted, with the Spaniard more of a samurai (especially on Twitter) and the German a better long-term prospect (due to the age difference).
Even so, with such limited development time in winter, Button is worth keeping in the other car for the first year, just to benefit from his experience. That leaves Magnussen walking on a thin rope, as McLaren would lose some credibility. Kevin did a better job than Sergio Perez last year and there’s no reason to suggest he massively underperformed in 2014. On the other hand, sacking a driver you raised in the junior program just because Honda says so might make McLaren an undesirable place for any future youngster, starting with their GP2 protégé Stoffel Vandoorne. It’s risky on short term and costly on long term to undermine your own talent pool.
In the end, both Alonso and Vettel are looking for options mainly because they are not content with their current status. The problem is that big contracts are signed usually in September, way before top drivers had a chance to evaluate the Japanese Power Unit. It’s advantage Honda for now, as Ferrari and Red Bull will pressurize their lead men into making a quick decision without having all the facts well known.
Finally, I will give my own predictions. Alonso doesn’t show his age, but he is well aware that time is not on his side: he can’t waste the next two years developing an engine, he needs results from day one. And there’s no magic button to make a long-term project work perfectly from day one, so probably Honda admits that 2015 is a learning period. There’s also the Ron Dennis factor, who can’t forget how Alonso triggered a $100m loss in 2007 and the loss of the constructors title. But even Ron Dennis is questioned sometimes, so you might give Fernando more of a chance to move if Ron leaves. Vettel has been targeted as the next Ferrari man and you might even see him in a Mercedes car for national reasons. It would be a better fit for McLaren than Alonso, as he is younger. He can “do a Rosberg” – develop a car from day one and benefit later on.
I don’t really see Alonso (too old) or Vettel (serial winner, visibly not content when losing) risking a move, so there’s a three-way fight between Button, Magnussen and Vandoorne. As the Belgian has a very slim chance of claiming the GP2 crown, there is a good reason to leave him there for another year, setting a clear objective to land the title. That leaves everything as it is, unless Hamilton gets so unhappy at Mercedes that he wants to come back. There will always be room for Lewis, who might have a chance to emulate his idol Ayrton Senna, driving the famous McLaren-Honda.